The coincidence between President Asif Ali Zardari's sprint to Delhi last week, and the $10 million head-money on Hafiz Saeed announced by the US could be purely accidental. But this action certainly refocused Indian attention on the alleged Mumbai attack planner, who heads the pantheon of jihadi "heroes" that now freely parades across Pakistan. In such circumstances, holding the olive branch before PM Manmohan Singh surely required guts. The scepticism to Zardari in India was, of course, predictable.
It is easy to pooh-pooh the visit. Mr Zardari is not a popular president or a clean one, and the PPP is unlikely to survive the elections scheduled in a few months from now. Plus, he wields no power on issues that India considers critical: nuclear weapons, Kashmir, and Afghanistan. Most importantly, he can do nothing to rein in the anti-India jihadist network, a matter that belongs squarely to the army's domain. Moving against Hafiz Saeed is not an option. Zardari cannot forget Memogate—which he somehow survived but Ambassador Husain Haqqani did not.
And yet, a weak and embattled government did something refreshingly good for the country. According India the MFN status for trade and related commercial activity is sure to be a game-changer that could bring peace and prosperity to the region. Ignoring the angry howls of the Difah-e-Pakistan crowd, the government for once listened to the country's majority—most Pakistanis do want trade with India even though they consider it a threat.
Still better news is that the Zardari-Singh joint communiqué says "practical, pragmatic" solutions will be sought for disputes. Showing his willingness to put Mumbai 2008 on the back-burner, Singh accepted Zardari's invitation to Islamabad. This is exactly the way it should be; frequent high-level meetings are the best confidence-building measures.
But what should the two sides talk about? Surely, there are many issues but here are the top five on which progress is both necessary and, more importantly, possible.
First, let both countries agree to immediately vacate the killing ice fields of Siachen. This insane war at 22,000 feet has claimed hundreds of lives on both sides; 138 Pakistani soldiers and civilian contractors are still being searched for after a mountain of snow crashed on them last week. Maintaining control over a system of Himalayan glaciers has come at a dreadful cost to human lives and resources, and has also irreversibly polluted a pristinely pure environment. But to what end? There are no minerals in Siachen; not even a blade of grass can grow there. This is just a stupid battle between two monster-sized national egos.
Second, let them talk about water—seriously. But please have the Pakistani side well-prepared for solid technical discussions. This means having real experts with facts at their fingertips. They must know about spillway design, sediment control, DSLs, drawdowns, sluicing, etc. I have seen too many duffers represent our side at Pakistan-India meetings where water inevitably comes up. Their lack of knowledge becomes painfully apparent and the Indians start smirking.
In water matters geography has favoured India; every upper riparian state can control outflows and India could be potentially unfair to Pakistan. But, although there are frequent allegations to this effect, are they really correct? The Indus Waters Treaty, negotiated in 1960, has so far kept matters on an even keel; neutral experts have adjudicated complaints received from Pakistan. Water has therefore not been a strong reason for war until now. But this stability may be drawing to an end because both countries—Pakistan more so than India—are becoming water stressed. Rising populations would strain resources even if the other country did not exist. Therefore, sensible and well-informed high-level discussions are critical.
Third, do away with the absurd and provocative daily flag ceremonies at Wagah. Instead, let the leaders talk about how ordinary people can travel more easily across the border. This is a natural right, and a step towards real peace. If you travel to the other side and see that people there have greater likeliness to you than anywhere else in the world, the urge to go to war diminishes. Yet, for a Pakistani to get an Indian visa, or an Indian to get a Pakistani one, is presently an ordeal.
Fourth, Pakistan and India have technical issues regarding trade and transit rights that need discussion. Although Pakistan has finally granted MFN status to India, the real dividend will come if non-tariff barriers are removed and bank transfers are allowed. There are estimates that Pakistan-India trade could rise to an awesome $8 billion per year. To achieve this goal, the onus lies on India.
Fifth: let them talk about exchanging academics, both teachers and students, between the two countries. Pakistan is starved of good teachers in almost every field, especially at the higher levels of education. The Higher Education Commission's plan to bring in university teachers from overseas has flopped. A breakthrough is only possible if Indian teachers could be brought to Pakistan. Indians would find it easier to adapt to local ways and customs than others. Plus, they would have smaller salary expectations than most others. The huge pool of strong Indian candidates could be used to Pakistan's advantage—we could pick the best teachers and researchers, and those most likely to make a positive impact on our system.
The above list has two deliberate omissions. The first is terrorism, which will displease the Indian side. But this matter lies beyond what any elected national leader in Pakistan can do; basically it is for the Pakistan Army to rethink its goals. In all likelihood, change will only come when the internal costs of maintaining strategic jihadist assets become too large. The present informal truce is unlikely to last forever, and jihadists could be attacking their handlers once again in the not-too-distant future.
The second omission is Kashmir, which displeases the Pakistani side. But, given the tortured history of Pakistan-India conflict on this conflict, it is difficult to imagine that progress is possible. Pragmatism therefore requires keeping the conflict on the backburner instead of demanding an instant solution. For now, it is more important that Pakistan and India become normal neighbours and deal with their disputes reasonably.
This article was first published in The Express Tribune
Thank you to all those who have taken the trouble to read the article and share their thoughts. Out of the arguments made here, there are two that perhaps need answering. So here they go.
1. The first part of the article compares outcomes (relative percentages of population of the religions concerned) irrespective of the process that led to those outcomes - whether immigration, relatively faster population growth or conversions. This was for two reasons. One, to put the figure of 2.3 per cent in "numerical perspective", as the article itself explained. The second reason was that outcomes are ultimately what the crux of debate is about. The rest of the article in any case dealt with process - or conversions in this case, from both a contemporary and historical perspective.
2. Some commenters have tried to cast doubts on the reliability of Census 2001. Those who do this should bear in mind that Census 2001 was conducted by a BJP government. Considering the extreme importance that BJP gives to this issue, it would be reasonable to expect that IF it had perceived a problem with the methodology that was distorting the numbers, it would have fixed it. As the article mentioned, BJP or BJP-supported governments have been in power for 10 of the last 40 years, or about a quarter of the time, and the only reasonable conclusion one can arrive at is that any misreporting of numbers, real or perceived, would be marginal and hence, not of importance.
To all other arguments made, my answer is the following: Please read the article again, with particular focus on the quotations of Vivekananda and Monier Williams, and the history of the missionary efforts in Bengal and their outcome.
Suggestions are not practical. It should be live and let live and then we move from there.
Bajpai went to Lahore with his new Bus and journey ended in Kargil heights .
The we talked to Prevez in Agra and our Parliament was attacked with sole aim to destroy the Indian Political Leadership .
Then we talked and talked we were blessed with 26/11 to destroy the economy of the Country -hurt it did our economy very badly .
Now Manmohan has got the itch to talk again .
Khuda janey Anzam kya hoga !
But jo bhi hoga accha nahin hoga !
USA learnt the lesson when Osama was found in the lap of ISI and PAK Army .
The World can't trust the Pakis .
Good points. If they act like a normal neighbors, Kashmir problem might even go away by itself. Kashmir problem is mostly in the mind. If the two countries don't view each other as a threat, Kashmir will be half solved already.
The five points are sensible and doable. Leave the knotty ones on the back burner.
One of the most naive articles I have seen from Prof. Parvez Hoodbhoy. Pakistan as a country can't be trusted at all. For Pakistan to be trustful, Pakisstan has to be honest to itself, accept its South-Indian roots, the Indic past, be proud of its Islamic heritage, accept the basic fact that religion can't be a basis for a successful nation and then move on in the real world, control its military, let democracy succeed with participation of common people, the the masses be part of the national process (not just the bloody elites) and then it can emerge as a reasonable country. The more Pakistan hates India, believes that Islam and more fundamentalist Islam is the solution (to which Bhutto, Zia, nawaz Sharif all contributed) there is no hope in the hell for that country.
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