Politically complex and mammoth in equal measure, Uttar Pradesh is a crucial passage in Modi’s march to New Delhi. The BJP’s political fortunes in UP depend much on how the Bahujan Samaj Party performs. But the art of poll predictions is made tougher by the enigmatic Mayawati—she keeps the media at an arm’s length, avoids giving interviews and doesn’t encourage journalists to attend her rallies.
If the BJP’s spin doctors are to be believed, Mayawati is losing her hold over the Dalits. Indeed, going by her recent public speeches, she does appear worried over the BJP’s overt wooing of her core constituency. Dalits, Mayawati declared in a statement, were never counted as ‘Hindus’ by the BJP. After the polling is over, she tells her flock, BJP leaders would not even allow Dalits to sit with them. If that betrays a certain nervousness, her partymen are not conceding the point (see box). They stubbornly maintain that the party is about to register its best ever performance in UP.
“Pressure is on Dalits to vote for BJP. The EVM machines record votes in a manner that it is possible to identify which village has voted for which party. Dalits living in hamlets in areas dominated by upper castes will dare not defy their diktat on voting BJP,” claims Shahid Siddiqui, who has been in both the Samajwadi Party and the BSP. Recalling his time in the BSP, Siddiqui tells Outlook how Mayawati would hold monthly meetings with leaders from districts for feedback, and take decisions based on their inputs. Every constituency was studied at length to choose candidates for polls. But with time, grassroot workers’ access to the supremo dwindled. “She is now surrounded by a coterie, who tell her only what she likes to hear, diluting the feedback, and leading to wrong decisions,” Siddiqui says. District-level leaders who once had Mayawati’s ear now get messages through a chain of command. The go-betweens in the BSP, says Siddiqui, have ill-served the party.
After the first round of voting in UP, Muslims reportedly felt their votes for the BSP were in vain, lost amidst a surge in BJP gains, says Ratan Mani Lal, a Lucknow-based journalist. A rethink of strategy had them vote SP in subsequent phases, despite their anger over the Muzaffarnagar riots, he added. Siddiqui, however, describes the Muslim votebank as a myth. “Muslims never vote en masse except out of fear,” he says, adding that this time the SP, BSP and the Congress have all got some Muslim votes.
Surprisingly, every time Mayawati stitched a poll alliance with the BJP, usually followed by an acrimonious split, she managed to strengthen her position subsequently, eating into the saffron outfit’s share. The BJP, too, knows how unpredictable an ally Mayawati could be—her last-minute decision to vote against the NDA in the Lok Sabha in 1999, despite assurances to the contrary, led to the fall of the Vajpayee government.
“In her early years, she sent out the message that nation-building did not include Dalits, tapping into their feeling of being marginalised,” says jnu professor Sudha Pai. Her campaigns—shorn of populism—were disciplined, though she was not a great orator, Pai says. But tensions within the party were never far from the surface. Doling out tickets to Muslims and non-Dalits, however, led to the BSP splitting twice in the past, says Santosh Tripathi, former professor at Kanpur’s DAV College. The BSP likes to boast that Dalits have never deserted it. Yet, whenever the BJP or the SP needed to save their governments by engineering defections from the BSP, they easily succeeded. Loyalty at the party level was fickle.
What sets the BSP apart from other organisations is the lack of a clear line of succession. “Its biggest strength has been its ability to unite most Dalit subcastes under one umbrella,” says Tripathi. With its core constituency intact, Mayawati ventured to woo other communities. “She has managed to break the traditional stranglehold the Congress had over Brahmins, Dalits and Muslims,” he says.
Experts attribute different reasons to the BSP, despite its ambitions outside, being mostly restricted to UP. “Mayawati was not interested in Madhya Pradesh, as she did not want another strong Dalit leader to emerge,” says Pai. Also, states like MP lacked fertile ground for the kind of mobilisation she brought about in UP. Contrary to the general perception of Mayawati wanting to be PM after the polls, Pai says she would rather set her sight on becoming CM again.
“What she does will become clear only after the polls. I think she would be open to an alliance with any political formation,” says Siddiqui. If she does manage to win 30 seats or more, she could well emerge a kingmaker, if not a queen.
Why doesn’t the media tell Dalits that Mayawati (Orders From Below, May 12) did nothing for them but use their cause to enrich herself and her agents?
Thank you to all those who have taken the trouble to read the article and share their thoughts. Out of the arguments made here, there are two that perhaps need answering. So here they go.
1. The first part of the article compares outcomes (relative percentages of population of the religions concerned) irrespective of the process that led to those outcomes - whether immigration, relatively faster population growth or conversions. This was for two reasons. One, to put the figure of 2.3 per cent in "numerical perspective", as the article itself explained. The second reason was that outcomes are ultimately what the crux of debate is about. The rest of the article in any case dealt with process - or conversions in this case, from both a contemporary and historical perspective.
2. Some commenters have tried to cast doubts on the reliability of Census 2001. Those who do this should bear in mind that Census 2001 was conducted by a BJP government. Considering the extreme importance that BJP gives to this issue, it would be reasonable to expect that IF it had perceived a problem with the methodology that was distorting the numbers, it would have fixed it. As the article mentioned, BJP or BJP-supported governments have been in power for 10 of the last 40 years, or about a quarter of the time, and the only reasonable conclusion one can arrive at is that any misreporting of numbers, real or perceived, would be marginal and hence, not of importance.
To all other arguments made, my answer is the following: Please read the article again, with particular focus on the quotations of Vivekananda and Monier Williams, and the history of the missionary efforts in Bengal and their outcome.
Hindutva redux in Uttar Pradesh: by Vidya Subrahmaniam
It is action replay in U.P., with caste and religion displacing progress and prosperity as primary campaign points.
With Narendra Modi openly declaiming against a religiously-themed backdrop, ‘development’ could well be a phrase fashionable on another planet.
Mayawati has sold her soul and aspirations of dalits...You know to whom...
<p>mayawatis' captive base doesn't read newspaper or watch fake news on tv.</p> <p>hence, this kind of propaganda will not affect it.</p> <p> </p>
I thought the biggest joke of the day was Rahul saying Obama will be wearing watches made from Mirzapur but Mayawati beat him.
She accused Modi of playing caste politics. Good thing I was not in a high floored building. I would have jumped otherwise.
I have seen stories of Dalits leaving BSP for the last 15 years and have always taken it with loads of salt.
But this time, I think there is a serious breach in the dalit votebank of BSP. Her press conference today is proof of that. She is very very panicked about her chances. Usually she would attack BJP on the succular line. Today she is attacking them on the caste line.
Very surprising. It will be a very good thing if dalits in UP started voting for BJP or even Congress.
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