Where’s My Lantern?
“If a son errs, give him a slap or two but don’t throw him out of the house,” pleads Ramvilas Paswan at a rally. Paswan knows he is fighting with his back to the wall but his pleas don’t seem to cut much ice. Mohammed Shahid Raza, a long-time Paswan loyalist, says, “There was a time when this same ground would be filled to capacity with people to hear Paswanji. Today, there are more vehicles than people.” Indeed, there are more schoolchildren eyeing his helicopter and discussing its finer points than people listening to his dispirited pitch.
Mushtaq Ahmed, another man in the crowd, does agree though that Paswan is easily the best of the three big candidates from Hajipur LS constituency. “We were fine with his alliance with BJP in the past, but this time he’s decided to break bread with Narendra Modi,” he says. “What my mouth speaks and my heart says is contrary to what my mind thinks,” he goes on, a little cryptically.
They expect 70-90 per cent of the minority votes to swing away from the LJP in Hajipur, where 50 per cent of the voters are from the Muslim and the Yadav communities. While the Muslims are upset with Paswan’s alliance with Modi, the Yadavs are upset with him for breaking up with Laloo Yadav. Still, Paswan puts up a brave front. His body language suggests he is aware of a miscalculation on his part. But he maintains that although a section of the Muslims and the Yadavs are angry with him, the majority will finally come around.
Contrary to the popular perception, an anti-Modi wave seems to be sweeping these parts of the state. The people have all heard about the loaded statements and hate speeches made by the Pravin Togadias and Giriraj Singhs. “If Modi did not have time to oversee what was happening in his own backyard, what is the guarantee he will have time to see what is happening in the rest of the country?” asks a man after some prodding.
Curiously, in large swathes of Hajipur and Saran, people do not seem to have Modi much on their mind. It is chief minister Nitish Kumar they are more angry with and also the local candidate. So an irate RJD supporter in Parsa, in Saran constituency, asks, “What did Rudy (Rajiv Pratap, the BJP candidate here) do for us in the five years he was minister during the NDA rule? Laloo, as railway minister, brought the wheel factory to Chhapra and got several other projects sanctioned.” Land for the projects, they claimed, has already been acquired, sending land prices soaring from Rs 50,000 a bigha to Rs 5 lakh a bigha. “Why should we vote for anyone else?” they ask in unison. Laloo, they insist, is the original “vikas purush”. “All the development you see here—it’s a gift from him,” insist his loyalists.
People flock to her with grievances. And she accepts petitions and imperiously assures people of redressal, as if she is still in power. Indeed, her constant refrain is “we’ll win, we’ll return to power...”, turning the electoral battle into a local, state-level battle. She never even mentions Modi.
The Yadavs are upset with Nitish Kumar who, they complain, promoted upper-caste Bhumihars at their cost. So they are again rallying around their messiah Laloo, putting paid to BJP’s hopes that OBC votes would be split between the two. Rabri Devi stokes the fire. “Bachchon ke haath mein Nitish ne slate ke badle plate pakda diya hai (Schoolchildren have been handed doles instead of education),” she says, not elaborating whether she is referring to midday meals or to something else. Her audience pliantly nod their heads.
Prabhat Chand Sharma, an lic agent and shopkeeper at Karhauli bazaar in Hajipur constituency, says if this had been the assembly elections, Nitish’s JD(U) would have fared a lot better. But since he is not expected to have much clout in Delhi post-polls, the votes will go to others. Moreover, like many others, he also feels that JD(U) candidate Ram Sundar Das (a former CM) is “too weak”, given that he is over 90. The dark horse that has Paswan so worried is the Congress candidate and Laloo’s choice, Sanjiv Prasad Toni.
Amitabh Bhushan of PRIA, an NGO with a strong presence in Bihar, says there is a growing feeling that whatever development will happen, it will be through a ‘central’ leader, one who’s perceived to have influence in Delhi. In the last seven weeks, the projected tallies put out by media have changed dramatically. Today, there is talk of a strong comeback by the RJD. Not many support the view that this is a vote in favour of Laloo Yadav, it’s more an anti-BJP, anti-incumbency (read Nitish fatigue) vote. For apart from party loyalists in his home constituency, which after delimitation has become Saran, there is hardly any good word to be heard in Patna or Hajipur constituency about the 15 years of Laloo as chief minister of Bihar. Of course, his much-talked-about tenure as central rail minister still has some sheen, raising expectations again that having a strong leader with prospects to become a central minister would bring more rewards for Bihar.
Political pundits are still calculating the winning/losing chances of various candidates in the 40 LS constituencies. Votes still seem to move more along caste lines though it’s not totally disconnected with development issues. “The main minority groups—Yadavs and Muslims—will deliver an anti-BJP vote. If they feel the JD(U) is strong, they will vote for its candidate,” says Paswan hopefully. He’s banking on the upper-caste votes for the BJP and the votes of the minority groups splitting more in favour of the JD(U) to carry him through. He’s also hoping son Chirag’s presence in the campaign will provide some fresh impetus (see box).
Seasoned political watchers told Outlook that the JD(U) may fail to benefit this elections mainly due to the complacency factor—indifferent candidate selection could swing the vote in RJD’s favour. Rabri Devi certainly is confident her party will benefit. “Just like India Shining, last time Nitish Kumar benefited from the media hype and large advertising campaign. Despite the hype, Nitish is likely to lose in all the seats they are contesting while out of the 40, except for a few seats, we will win all.” With hundreds of people including first-time voters still waiting for their election cards, it is hard to say whether Bihar will vote for development or to keep the Modi juggernaut outside the state.
Nitish Kumar quit the nda because some joker told him he could become the prime minister (It’s all Fodder to the Mill, May 12). Now he will most likely disappear from the political landscape. How do sycophants manage to influence serious leaders into making bad decisions?
Thank you to all those who have taken the trouble to read the article and share their thoughts. Out of the arguments made here, there are two that perhaps need answering. So here they go.
1. The first part of the article compares outcomes (relative percentages of population of the religions concerned) irrespective of the process that led to those outcomes - whether immigration, relatively faster population growth or conversions. This was for two reasons. One, to put the figure of 2.3 per cent in "numerical perspective", as the article itself explained. The second reason was that outcomes are ultimately what the crux of debate is about. The rest of the article in any case dealt with process - or conversions in this case, from both a contemporary and historical perspective.
2. Some commenters have tried to cast doubts on the reliability of Census 2001. Those who do this should bear in mind that Census 2001 was conducted by a BJP government. Considering the extreme importance that BJP gives to this issue, it would be reasonable to expect that IF it had perceived a problem with the methodology that was distorting the numbers, it would have fixed it. As the article mentioned, BJP or BJP-supported governments have been in power for 10 of the last 40 years, or about a quarter of the time, and the only reasonable conclusion one can arrive at is that any misreporting of numbers, real or perceived, would be marginal and hence, not of importance.
To all other arguments made, my answer is the following: Please read the article again, with particular focus on the quotations of Vivekananda and Monier Williams, and the history of the missionary efforts in Bengal and their outcome.
Nitish shared power and relations for 17 years and then Quit because some joker told him he can be PM,Nitish will disappear from Political Landscape.How on Earth do sycophants influence Netas,Niitish could have gone with BJP and then put a spoke in Modi becoming PM,Now Modi has Nitish running for cover
as expected nitish has fallen between the two stools.
paswans' act of selling his soul will not bear fruit.
net gainer will be rjd and congress. bjp maxed out the last time around.
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