When Narendra Modi delivered his vision speech at Ramlila ground in New Delhi last week, the 90-minute address to the BJP National Council Meet was followed by a brief one by L.K. Advani. The BJP veteran praised Modi’s speech, but warned the party not to become overconfident, as it was before the 2004 Lok Sabha election. Many in the Modi camp see the election as a cakewalk for their leader, but seniors within the party and the RSS see roadblocks aplenty. Serious issues remain, and if left unaddressed, Modi will have to remain PM-in-waiting for another five years. A look at a few of these concerns.
One-man show: Campaign Modi is not an exercise planned, managed or being executed by the party. Many senior leaders, in fact, have no idea what it entails; they are just the faces on the stage or on posters. There are ghostly echoes of 2004, when it was left to one man—Pramod Mahajan—to manage the party’s campaign. However well-planned, high-tech, creative or deftly managed such effort may be, the lack of inclusiveness and disconnect can only be unhealthy for the team and the organisation.
Candidate selection: This is the biggest challenge for the BJP, without which it is unable to project a clear figure for 2014. “I think the biggest challenge is to select the right candidate,” says senior political analyst Ram Bahadur Rai. “However, I am firm about the BJP getting a clear majority.” Though the party has launched the 272+ campaign and decided to contest elections from more than 380 seats, finalising names is a headache. Leaders who may not have the winnability but whose names cannot be avoided will have to be included. Simultaneously, candidates who have bad records in urban and semi-urban areas might have to be dropped, because they might become an issue locally, and despite a presumed Modi wave, post negative results.
“I think the biggest challenge is to select the right candidate. However, I am firm about the BJP getting a clear majority.”Ram Bahadur Rai, Senior political analyst The AAP Factor: There is less chance of aap notching a good two-digit tally, but it is sure to play spoiler. The BJP is banking hugely on vote shifts from the Congress and other regional ‘bad performers’, and winning largely on the anti-incumbency vote. But if aap reaches these disappointed voters first, the BJP would have lost a few numbers. BJP strategists admit aap is a potential threat, unless it collapses under the weight of its own contradictions and miscalculations. aap is definitely a worry, which is why the BJP has been calling them the B-team of the Congress, even though aap has targeted Congress more than BJP.
Young India: The majority of the voters this time are youth. And though Modi’s charisma was unparalleled initially, things changed post the Delhi assembly election results in 2013. aap’s youth volunteer base is increasing rapidly by the day, the party attracts more youth at its events than any protests, rallies or events organised by the BJP youth wing or even Modi.
More online, less offline: The BJP campaign is still focused on media and new media. And even with elections knocking on the door now, the party is yet to chalk out a concrete plan for offline campaigns. NaMo rallies can’t be enough to ensure votes; a door-to-door campaign is imperative, and the party is yet to start these in the country. RSS has now come to the rescue, with Ram Madhav saying, “One of the main focus will be to reach out to the people from door to door and ensure maximum turnout on polling day, especially in cities.” But RSS too is struggling, with the number of shakhas and swayamsevaks coming down year after year.
Organisational issues: This remains the biggest headache for the party, something Amit Shah has not been able to resolve even in Uttar Pradesh, in which state the party has invested its biggest hope. It’s the same story in Uttarakhand, Bihar, Jharkhand, Rajasthan and Orissa. Division and cat-fights dog the units in Maharashtra and the southern states too. It’s certainly not easy to satisfy everyone, but no efforts are being made to minimise differences either. Many states have not even held routine meetings of the state councils and district units. There are reports that panchayat and ward level representatives have been selected at the district headquarters by merely selecting names from the electoral list rather than actually hitting the ground and reaching out to the villages and mohallas.
The Minority Mandate: This election is primarily for or against Modi; it will be the basis of voting in most of the seats. There are more than 100 seats where Muslim voters will play an important role in electing the public representative and they have a significant presence in more than 200 parliamentary seats. Even if they don’t bail the Congress out, most won’t vote for Modi, never mind the kite-flying with Salman or his inviting maulanas home; the shadow of 2002 hasn’t faded at all. P. Chidambaram didn’t miss the chance to recall that Modi never gave tickets to Muslims. Christians don’t invest much hope in him either. Meanwhile, Congress has played a trump card with granting minority status to the Jains, a mostly business community and hitherto BJP voters.
Criminals and the Corrupt: People like Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, Sushil Singh and many other such ‘musclemen’ with controversial backgrounds are going to contest on BJP tickets in Uttar Pradesh. The same is true of states like Rajasthan, MP, Bihar and in the south. There are enough tainted candidates in Gujarat, including Amit Shah. In Karnataka, Yeddiyurappa is back in the party, which will make it difficult for the party to answer difficult questions from other political parties. aap will definitely not miss a chance to project these corrupt names as a counter to NaMo’s plank of good governance.
The Aspirants Within: Though they look like they have fallen in line, the aspirants within the BJP have not given up on their dream of occupying the top post. There is every possibility that the top leaders of the party will limit the party’s seats to 175. This would create a situation where the BJP would have to form government with an ‘acceptable’ face as PM. There are at least half a dozen such names which could derail Modi at the last minute. Secondly, in BJP-led states, the CMs would focus on fielding and helping those who are loyal to them instead of names coming out of Modi’s control room. For example, the BJP for now has 13 members in the Lok Sabha from Madhya Pradesh. Shivraj Singh Chouhan might not be interested in helping Modi get more seats from the state.
Alliances and Regional Parties: As of now, Modi remains the face of the party at the national level. But as BJP president Rajnath Singh said in an interview to Outlook, “There are possibilities of pre- and post-poll alliances and many parties are talking to us.” A top leader from the party has said that Chandrababu Naidu is likely to join the SNDA soon. NaMo, driven by his own individualistic, ambitious persona, is not a ‘workable’ name in coalition politics, even if he can get good numbers for the party in the election. His image and past offer less scope to attract allies; he will be a liability rather than an asset for a larger NDA. This has happened in the past as well when Advani, who fronted the rise of the BJP through the early ’90s, was replaced by Atal Behari Vajpayee to form the NDA.
And this is not a complete list. At a time when the Congress is being projected as a party preparing for 2019 and aap’s anarchy is appealing to the voter, Modi still has a lot to do and work out.
Journalistic fiction cannot get any better than the piece It Just Turned a Long March (Feb 03) in your magazine. I think Outlook is really losing it when it comes to dealing with Narendra Modi.
Rajiv Wadehra, Noida
A sober, non-partisan assessment of the election climate as it stands at this point of time. I think the BJP is losing the plot by focusing so bluntly on the numbers game instead of coming up with concrete policy statements.
Pinaki S. Ray, Adelaide
The Jains, mostly a business community, are affluent. Wonder if they care about a minority status. In fact, most of my Jain friends wonder who actually made the request.
Sachin Kumar, Shamli
Thank you to all those who have taken the trouble to read the article and share their thoughts. Out of the arguments made here, there are two that perhaps need answering. So here they go.
1. The first part of the article compares outcomes (relative percentages of population of the religions concerned) irrespective of the process that led to those outcomes - whether immigration, relatively faster population growth or conversions. This was for two reasons. One, to put the figure of 2.3 per cent in "numerical perspective", as the article itself explained. The second reason was that outcomes are ultimately what the crux of debate is about. The rest of the article in any case dealt with process - or conversions in this case, from both a contemporary and historical perspective.
2. Some commenters have tried to cast doubts on the reliability of Census 2001. Those who do this should bear in mind that Census 2001 was conducted by a BJP government. Considering the extreme importance that BJP gives to this issue, it would be reasonable to expect that IF it had perceived a problem with the methodology that was distorting the numbers, it would have fixed it. As the article mentioned, BJP or BJP-supported governments have been in power for 10 of the last 40 years, or about a quarter of the time, and the only reasonable conclusion one can arrive at is that any misreporting of numbers, real or perceived, would be marginal and hence, not of importance.
To all other arguments made, my answer is the following: Please read the article again, with particular focus on the quotations of Vivekananda and Monier Williams, and the history of the missionary efforts in Bengal and their outcome.
"Better you talk about your mission 272.
How you are going to achieve that."
It is quite simple. WIn 271 seats and win at least one more seat after that.
32 Ramki sir
Better you talk about your mission 272.
How you are going to achieve that.
32 Ramki sir
"Now everything has changed..."
Wait, more things will change b4 elections.......
Oftentimes things are comical,illogical,absurd or all 3 at once!
aapko delhi mein subkutch pathachalte hai na!
Times Now is reporting that Modi and Pawar held a secret meeting to discuss post poll alliances!!!
VNK Murthi >> But AAP is determined to give sleepless night to you folks
BJP is a ideologically oriented party. In 2009, a bad year for the party they got 18% of national votes. This BJP votebank is voting them for ideological reasons. They will not vote for AAP in present form.
In contrast, the biggest threat AAP poses is to left parties. Consider this - In 1989, Left parties won MP seats in all of North India, they got a Lok sabha seat in Gujarat, Maha, Rajasthan, UP , everywhere. Today they are no where outside WB/Kerala and in TN they are begging Jaya or Karuna to get that seat..
AAP is like CPM/CPI without the anti americanism/anti imperialialism nonsense and they can very well make the Left parties irrelevant , if they target the Trade Union votebank..
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