If Narendra Modi wins handsomely in Gujarat, does he automatically take over the BJP central leadership and become the party’s face for the prime ministership? The logic of coalition politics should ordinarily suggest: No, Modi cannot become the leader of the NDA. Yet the man’s personality is such it would be impossible for the BJP’s Delhi leaders to stand up to him.
By then, the hype around him would be hysterical. There is already no denying that he is the only BJP leader who the middle class and the parivar cadre respond to well. He has a national image and does well in opinion polls that raise the question of future PMs. Modi entered the BJP’s national executive in Surajkund last week like a king entering a durbar. President Nitin Gadkari, though, said the BJP would follow the Vajpayee model of development, a clear sign that the Sangh leadership would still like to contain Modi.
But they may not be able to if he gains momentum from a convincing state win. Step two for Modi involves taking charge in Delhi. He would like the BJP to view this as an exercise in the rebuilding of the party, in energising the cadre, in giving a face to the leadership.
But herein lies the rub. Given his track record in Gujarat, Modi has quite efficiently executed the ideological agendas of the Sangh parivar through his administration. And he has done so by demolishing all other structures/parallel forces like the VHP and RSS. Although no one opposes him openly any longer (as Vajpayee, Pramod Mahajan and to a lesser extent Sushma Swaraj once did), the autocratic persona does alarm.
In Gujarat, there is only him at the top of a pyramid consisting of the administration, cadres loyal to the man, and great support from the middle class and corporate world. The rest of the party and parivar are ciphers. The question that several national leaders ask is: how does an individual keep his/her self-respect with Modi? Anoint him PM-in-waiting and be reconciled to giving up the tradition of a collective leadership to a man who does things his own way and tolerates no opposition?
| | | | The question several national leaders ask is: how does one keep his/her self-respect
with a railroading Modi? | | | | |
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Possibly, for a while the BJP would have no choice but to allow Modi to have his way. The idea could then be to beard the lion in the national den and let him exhaust all his options. Let him discover for himself that a national coalition requires compromise, not arrogance. And that the 2002 cases may not be an issue in Gujarat but do matter in a national design that will be determined by smaller players. Modi’s calculation would of course be that after a go-it-alone strategy with him, the BJP would energise the middle classes across the country, recover the urban vote and do so well that regional forces end up “adjusting”. By then, it is feasible he would have thrown in an apology or two for 2002.
Much of what could unfold depends on imponderables. If the UPA-II boat steadies at the Centre and the establishment (comprising corporates, both Indian and foreign, plus the media) continues to treat the Congress as an essential ingredient of any future coalition, then Project Modi would not be seen as a necessary alternative. But should the destruction of UPA-II continue, then Modi will be posited as the strong Mr Fix-it leader and will get even greater corporate and media backing.
Were Modi to be tripped, then the real opposition would have to come not from the Delhi BJP leaders but from the CMs and state satraps. If they were to collectively gang up, then things may get difficult. But this too would depend on the national mood and narrative after the assembly polls this year.
By Saba Naqvi with Panini Anand