The Ninth Plan (1997-2002) document said that the amount of money we spend for poverty alleviation—around Rs 40,000 crore—would have given around Rs 8,000 per month per poor family, which would be sufficient to buy three kilos of foodgrain every day. It didn't happen. So, there are design and implementation problems. In this year's budget speech, the finance minister talked about a scheme for evaluation, monitoring, management and strengthening of targeted PDS (public distribution system) in 2007-08, which will include computerisation of PDS and an integrated information system developed for the Food Corporation of India.
| | | | It's not that growth has been without jobs. It's been without enough jobs—not the same thing. | | | | |
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But if you ask me details of what has to be done—that's something that the states and the implementing ministries have to decide and implement. If you are looking for a one-line solution to the design and implementation problem, there is none.
Second generation reforms is about getting into the details. By definition, it is tedious and more difficult than first generation reforms. You have to chase the rupee of expenditure to see whether it is producing the results or not, whether it is actually building the roads or educating the child it is meant to. And that requires active participation from the civil society, greater sensitivity from both the demand and supply side, good monitoring and oversight. I am hopeful we have come a long way and will solve the problems.
We also need to look more carefully at the programme evaluation reports. These reports have valuable information which we collectively need to analyse for improving programme design. In this context, the Right To Information (RTI) Act is also welcome. I think that the delivery system will improve through 'name and shame'. As we are no different from people in other democracies, I think the 'name and shame' system will work. I don't think you can have a centralised solution to this issue of programme design and implementation. Not only the state governments but also the panchayati raj institutions (PRIs) would have to be involved. The devil is in the details. That is why second generation reforms, which is about implementation and design, are harder than first generation reforms. The solution needs delicate balancing. Besides PRIs, you have other parallel structures like watershed communities, and education committees that are doing good work. The two have to be combined delicately. There has to be a diverse set of solutions depending on the local circumstances. We can monitor the outcomes and focus on the programme evaluation reports. So much newsprint is devoted to how much money is spent and so little on the quality of services. There are impediments, of course. All of us have vested interests. Firstly, it is a change, and change hurts. I wouldn't put the blame on politicians or bureaucrats or recipients of services. All of us are guilty.
It is wrong to say there has been growth without jobs; it's been without enough jobs, which is different from jobless growth. I have not seen any numbers that show jobs haven't grown. But the labour force, particularly with increasing participation, has grown even faster. So, the unemployment rate has increased. Secondly, the NREGs (National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme) is like life insurance. Life insurance benefits a family only if the insured dies. But that may not be the outcome that the family wants. So in the ultimate analysis, we should not derive satisfaction when more people take up jobs under the NREGs. It is an interim solution until more productive and gainful employment is generated in the economy. It's very important that NREGs is mixed with creation of durable assets.
Given that our per capita income is still considerably less than $1,000, we have to grow for a long, long time to reach where we want to. And the growth has to be inclusive. The new numbers for poverty are encouraging for some states and discouraging for others. But overall, so far as the Millennium Development Goal of halving poverty ratio by 2015 goes, no one doubts our success. But even when we have achieved the MDG, there will still be plenty of poor people. The battle has to go on. If we have seen the reduction from 36 per cent to 26 per cent to 21 per cent, I expect it will accelerate with time. A more durable solution will come from better delivery of health and education.
Ashok Lahiri, chief economic advisor to the finance ministry . As told to Lola Nayar