2006, the year gone by, was one of the best in India's economic history. But politicians and media continue to discuss issues settled in the world with the fall of Communism.
2006, the year gone by, was one of the best in India's economic history. We had two successive quarters of 9 per cent growth, following three unprecedented years of 8, and this came on top of a remarkable 6 per cent average growth in the previous 22 years. (Recall that the West's industrial revolution took place at a rate of 3 per cent GDP growth!) As a result, 1 per cent of the country's poor have crossed the poverty line each year since 1980, and this adds up to almost 200 million people.
| | | | One fervently wishes Dr Singh would do for our power situation what Vajpayee did with the telecom sector. | | | | |
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It is less than China's 300 million, but it is significant. Meanwhile, population growth has also begun to slow. Hence, growth has brought large per capita income gains—from $1,178 in 1980 to $3,051 in 2005 (in
ppp).
The debate in the country, oddly enough, does not reflect this achievement. Politicians and media continue to discuss issues settled in the world with the fall of Communism. We are confused partly because our leaders have not bothered to explain how we are reaping the rewards of 15 years of economic reform. Although the reforms have been painfully slow, even slow reforms have added up, and they've made India one of the world's best performing economies.
They have not explained, in particular, how the reforms are helping to lift the poor. Our leaders need to remember that much of Margaret Thatcher's energy did not go into creating reforms but into educating her constituents how reforms helped the nation. This is perhaps the greatest failure of India's reformers. I sometimes wonder why Manmohan Singh and his "dream team of reformers" don't go on television and educate us night after night. And because they fail to do so, people fall hostage to the bad ideas of the populists and the Communists. It is not enough to talk of "inclusive growth" or assert that we must grow at 10 per cent—you must explain how this will affect the lives of the poor. Only thus will you create a constituency for thoroughgoing reform.
Our leaders must also come clean and admit that India's economic success, unlike China's, has not been induced by the state—by building infrastructure, for example. India appears to be rising despite the state, as the government has been stepping out of the people's way. This, however, may be a simplistic formula. Although our driving engine is the private economy, you cannot do without the state. Not surprisingly, some of our best-performing sectors have had the best regulators, who have worked hard to create genuine competition in the market—for example, telecom (TRAI), capital markets (SEBI), insurance, and highways.
Every Indian's fondest wish today is for a tough regulator in the power sector, who would implement the Electricity Act, create vigorous competition and have the courage to take on politicians in the states, as Seshan did at the Election Commission or as Justice Sodhi took on the telecom bureaucrats at TRAI. Vajpayee's greatest contribution was to create the conditions for our telecom revolution that has visibly transformed millions of lives. Indians of all persuasions wish fervently that Manmohan Singh's claim to fame would be to create a similar revolution in electric power. Nothing quite diminishes us as a nation as our pathetic power situation.
India is poised at a great moment in its history. Rapid growth should continue—and even accelerate. And the Planning Commission is right in aiming at 9 per cent in the next Plan period. But we cannot take this for granted. Public debt is high, which discourages investment in much-needed infrastructure. Our labour laws cover only 10 per cent of the workforce, and have the perverse effect of discouraging employers from hiring new workers. The public sector is still too large and inefficient, a drag on growth and employment and a burden on consumers. Although manufacturing has recently picked up, India has failed to create a broad-based, labour-intensive industrial revolution—meaning that gains in employment have not been commensurate with growth. Our farmers continue to suffer from distribution and production distortions that result in farmers getting, for example, only 20-30 per cent of the retail price of fruits and vegetables (versus 40-50 per cent in other countries).
It is becoming increasingly possible to believe that India's age-old economic problem will be solved in the first quarter of the 21st century. Based on current trends, we should reach a level of prosperity where for the first time in history Indians will emerge from a struggle against want into an age when the large majority will be at ease. Some regions will get there before others—Gujarat may be 20 years ahead of Bihar, but Bihar too will catch up (incredible, as it seems). But this will only happen if we remove the remaining hurdles to growth.
(Gurcharan Das is the author of
India Unbound
, Penguin, which predicted India's rise five years ago.)