Rearview 2006
Slow Adds Up
2006, the year gone by, was one of the best in India's economic history. But politicians and media continue to discuss issues settled in the world with the fall of Communism.
Calendar 2006
India Inc went on a veritable shopping spree in 2006, buying companies, flaunting its financial clout, and daring to dream beyond national boundaries.
2006, the year gone by, was one of the best in India's economic history. We had two successive quarters of 9 per cent growth, following three unprecedented years of 8, and this came on top of a remarkable 6 per cent average growth in the previous 22 years. (Recall that the West's industrial revolution took place at a rate of 3 per cent GDP growth!) As a result, 1 per cent of the country's poor have crossed the poverty line each year since 1980, and this adds up to almost 200 million people.
 
 
One fervently wishes Dr Singh would do for our power situation what Vajpayee did with the telecom sector.
 
 
It is less than China's 300 million, but it is significant. Meanwhile, population growth has also begun to slow. Hence, growth has brought large per capita income gains—from $1,178 in 1980 to $3,051 in 2005 (in ppp).

The debate in the country, oddly enough, does not reflect this achievement. Politicians and media continue to discuss issues settled in the world with the fall of Communism. We are confused partly because our leaders have not bothered to explain how we are reaping the rewards of 15 years of economic reform. Although the reforms have been painfully slow, even slow reforms have added up, and they've made India one of the world's best performing economies.

They have not explained, in particular, how the reforms are helping to lift the poor. Our leaders need to remember that much of Margaret Thatcher's energy did not go into creating reforms but into educating her constituents how reforms helped the nation. This is perhaps the greatest failure of India's reformers. I sometimes wonder why Manmohan Singh and his "dream team of reformers" don't go on television and educate us night after night. And because they fail to do so, people fall hostage to the bad ideas of the populists and the Communists. It is not enough to talk of "inclusive growth" or assert that we must grow at 10 per cent—you must explain how this will affect the lives of the poor. Only thus will you create a constituency for thoroughgoing reform.

Our leaders must also come clean and admit that India's economic success, unlike China's, has not been induced by the state—by building infrastructure, for example. India appears to be rising despite the state, as the government has been stepping out of the people's way. This, however, may be a simplistic formula. Although our driving engine is the private economy, you cannot do without the state. Not surprisingly, some of our best-performing sectors have had the best regulators, who have worked hard to create genuine competition in the market—for example, telecom (TRAI), capital markets (SEBI), insurance, and highways.

Every Indian's fondest wish today is for a tough regulator in the power sector, who would implement the Electricity Act, create vigorous competition and have the courage to take on politicians in the states, as Seshan did at the Election Commission or as Justice Sodhi took on the telecom bureaucrats at TRAI. Vajpayee's greatest contribution was to create the conditions for our telecom revolution that has visibly transformed millions of lives. Indians of all persuasions wish fervently that Manmohan Singh's claim to fame would be to create a similar revolution in electric power. Nothing quite diminishes us as a nation as our pathetic power situation.

India is poised at a great moment in its history. Rapid growth should continue—and even accelerate. And the Planning Commission is right in aiming at 9 per cent in the next Plan period. But we cannot take this for granted. Public debt is high, which discourages investment in much-needed infrastructure. Our labour laws cover only 10 per cent of the workforce, and have the perverse effect of discouraging employers from hiring new workers. The public sector is still too large and inefficient, a drag on growth and employment and a burden on consumers. Although manufacturing has recently picked up, India has failed to create a broad-based, labour-intensive industrial revolution—meaning that gains in employment have not been commensurate with growth. Our farmers continue to suffer from distribution and production distortions that result in farmers getting, for example, only 20-30 per cent of the retail price of fruits and vegetables (versus 40-50 per cent in other countries).

It is becoming increasingly possible to believe that India's age-old economic problem will be solved in the first quarter of the 21st century. Based on current trends, we should reach a level of prosperity where for the first time in history Indians will emerge from a struggle against want into an age when the large majority will be at ease. Some regions will get there before others—Gujarat may be 20 years ahead of Bihar, but Bihar too will catch up (incredible, as it seems). But this will only happen if we remove the remaining hurdles to growth.




(Gurcharan Das is the author of India Unbound, Penguin, which predicted India's rise five years ago.)
Calendar 2006
India Inc went on a veritable shopping spree in 2006, buying companies, flaunting its financial clout, and daring to dream beyond national boundaries.
 
Daily MailPublished
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HAVE YOUR SAY
Jan 13, 2007 12:00 AM
16
A very sensible piece with an optimistic message which rises above petty politics. As they say, it keeps the eye on the prize. I liked the suggestion that leaders should regularly apprise people of the progress being made and the impact of such progress on their lives.
Ghulam Y Faruki
New York, United States
Jan 13, 2007 12:00 AM
15
Excellent article and thanks to Outlook and Gurcharan Das. In this regard I believe every literate indian should read 'India unbound' by Mr.Das, to get some idea as to how and where and why India is rising at this time.
Also, the idea of our economic reformers addressing the people through television is an excellent one. I sincerely hope the government take notice of it. Thanks.
Abhik Ray Chaudhury
Columbus, United States
Jan 13, 2007 12:00 AM
14
Wonder why he thinks that "issues settled in the world with the fall of communism" are settled for good or do not continue to be relevant in some form in the Indian context? Politicians, howsoever despicable some of them may appear, do best represent the masses. And for the masses, issue that appear to the author to be so clearly "settled," are not quite so. Different peoples within the country might see things differently, depending upon how the "reforms" have impacted them. Each might have a valid point of view much the same way the "reform-minded" see reform as the only solution. More debate, more exchange of information, ideas and success and failure stories - rather than lectures from a Manmohan Singh - might just be a better idea.
Jaipat S. Jain
New York, United States
Jan 10, 2007 12:00 AM
13
Should read "Mount Kilimanjaro" in the post below
Raj Bodepudi
Oak Brook, United States
Jan 09, 2007 12:00 AM
12
"Local people say there are more than 100 Saddam Husseins in 27 adjoining villages dominated by mostly Sunni Muslims. There is even a family with one son called Saddam Hussein and a younger sibling called Osama Bin Laden." BBC News

One can never hope the politicians and the upper caste Hindus to rescue India from the Islamic terror since they had OPENLY conspired in bringing this about, in the first place, with their pre-historic caste symbolism and caste loyalties.

Raj Bodepudi
Oak Brook, United States
Jan 09, 2007 12:00 AM
11
Govt has always been, and in may ways, still is, The problem - and yes, most of the gains have come despite, not because of, govt. The problems facing this unruly balkanized nation based on caste, sect, clan, religion, language, ethnicity etc are myriad, yet Cong-Left govt still haven't a handle on dealing with them, short of mandating populist vote-getting quotas and throwing hundreds of billions of taxpayers monies on fake projects to create fake employment. Sure, things are better, but with over 500 million malnourished, living in wretched mind-numbing poverty, without access to the most basic amenities like water, electricity, schools etc., and over 300 million still totally illiterate, the concept of 'India Shining' is difficult to imagine, even perverse.
Bodh
Springfield, United States
Jan 09, 2007 12:00 AM
10
"In FULL agreement with RAJ from U.S." Dr. Seshadri

Since there are so many by that name, let me offer the following suggestions,

1. Poverty is a mass murder and ALL suffering from this disease need help-No caste or religious barriers. Quotas are fine if governments do not implement the projects since hardly 15 paise out of each rupee reache the intended beneficiaries.

2. All are victims of the Islamist ideology, especially the Moslems. They are imprisoned for life with no hope of enlighenment and genuine freedom. Hence, the United Front against the Islamism MUST include Moslems whether they are willing to join the fight now, or not.

3. ALL human life is sacred and no terrorism will be condoned, of any type.

4. But, eventually, Hindus should live in peace in India with no FEAR-just as the Moslems live in Saudi Arabia. In fact, with lot more freedom and lot less fear.

5. The above will only happen if Moslems voluntarily stop propagating and practising Islam in India since Islam will eventually destrot the Indic traditions as Islam had done ALL traditions from Cairo to Mt. Casablanca in Africa, and in the Middle East.

6. A peoples' movement and their defences must be mobilized for setting up of the Holocaust Memorials all over India where Hindus and Buddhists were massacred and their temples and shrines were decimated under the Islamic sword.

7. Please start collecting information on the FACTS of Islamic terror in India, since 712, to be distributed among roughly 700 million Hindus in India. Only this will help form a United Front against Islamic terror. The Corrupt Governments and politicians will then be chased away from power by the awakened masses, armed with knowledge of their true history and dedicated to building a nation free from fear for ENLIGHENMENT for all.
Raj Bodepudi
Oak Brook, United States
Jan 06, 2007 12:00 AM
9
Let the New Year bring a bold RESOLVE, among all Indians, for reconciliation and peace among ALL communities. Each person at birth is neither a Hindu nor a Moslem, or any other. Only UNTHINKING social customs and habitual thought and behaviour had made it so. Let's try ABOLISHING the religious/social divide at birth itself, the ROOT of many evils
Raj Bodepudi
Oak Brook, United States
Jan 06, 2007 12:00 AM
8
In FULL agreement with RAJ from U.S.


The BJP and BSP should merge into a common Bharat Bahujan Party, BBP. Only the MBCs, SC/STs and minorities and ladies should be given electoral tkts. Brahmins, Thakurs, Vysyas should only play advisory roles in party organization and policy decisions. Such people may have jobs to do, anyway; they do not need to make politics their profession. Weaker sections people in legislature will ensure real benefits for their own real and rapid economic growth with justice, since they know where life pinches on them. Caste and communal divisions may get de-emphasized in politics.
v.seshadri
chennai, india
Jan 02, 2007 12:00 AM
7
"Nothing quite diminishes us as a nation as our pathetic power situation."

Personally, I think our "roads" more than even "power" diminishes us as a nation.

Agree that there is subsitute for growth for us to even have a chance of solving our problem of "poverty" hence necessary BUT then every time I come back travelling in India (the rural parts especially) I am not hopeful that it is sufficient. There does seem to be some cultural impediments.
Arun Maheshwari
Bangalore, India
Jan 01, 2007 12:00 AM
6
New Year Greetings for All Brothers & Sisters:

1. ALL humans are ONE
2. Mortal threat of Islam(ism) is REAL and can ignore Al Queda's threat to Islamize India only at our total annihilation.
3. All Indics (Non-Abrahamic traditions) should unite for defeating Islamism through one-child policy and reconversions. Indian political parties and army will not help us in this glorious task. Only a peoples' movement and its own defence force can accomplish this. There is no choice but to fight for liberating India from Islamism since the alternative is the CERTAIN extinction of Hindus and other Indics in their land of birth.

4. The BJP and the RSS had exhibited POVERTY of IMAGINATION and COWARDICE thus far. They are self-centred and caste-based. Otherwise, they would long ago have united the entire country. We need a NEW leadership with clarity on two issues-1.All humans are ONE. 2. Islam is an ideology that is bent on destroying what's left of India's heritage-it has no choice-just as the Indics have NO choice but to put an end to it.
Raj
Bowlingbrook, United States
Dec 31, 2006 12:00 AM
5
""Those who engineered this violent and unjust end to the life of a leader who was overthrown by war — in flagrant violation of international law — have much to answer for before the court of humanity" Hindu

Court of humanity! With justice Krishna Iyer as the judge! Verdict: slaughter Bush.
Ganesan
Nj, USA
Dec 31, 2006 12:00 AM
4
"Those who engineered this violent and unjust end to the life of a leader who was overthrown by war — in flagrant violation of international law — have much to answer for before the court of humanity" Hindu

Looking at the above response to the execution of Saddam by an elected (and perhaps the only one in the Middle East)government of Iraq shows that the "Secular" forces in India are on course to ISLAMIZE India faster than what even the dangerousIslamic demograpghics were indicating.

If the BJP and the RSS are REAL for protectring and for preserving India's hoilistic Indic heritage, and are DEAD against caste-based politics-they should first try uniting India's dalits and its women on a United Platform of "India for the Indics" and then mobilize the Peoples' Front and its own army, for defence.
Raj
Bowlingbrook, United States
Dec 31, 2006 12:00 AM
3
"The journey from the sublime to the dangerous has been egged on by a wanton disregard for national security" Ms Padmavati Sonk

Absolutely!

1. It started with the Vedic-Buddhist tradition itself. We care more for our caste more than for our community and the nation. The Caste-based society was and is CONGENITALLY ill prepared to defend itself. The Vedic-Hindu structures did not EVOLVE in a dynamic fashion, despite the Buddha and his supreme efforts. He knew well of need for an army and of preparedness to defend a nation-but His followers totally failed in grasping it.

2. The Islamist ideology and the Hindu-Buddhist traditions are like fire and water-like the Turkey and the Thanksgiving Dinner. One is a relativelt "peaceful" spiritual tradition and the other is a "violent ideology".

3. The Indian governments are the most corrupt in the world and they will sell their heritage for profit and for power-100% proven.

4. The Indian military is incalable of doing any good owing to its diversity and its own corruption.

5. The one alternative I could think of NOW is of the INDIC PEOPLELS' movement-to be led by those who respect and even venerate the women and Dalits and the historically disadvantaged. The leadership should be untarnished and above board regarding caste, class and gender discrimination.

6. Then, and only then, we can lead a peoples' army (based on self-defence only) and could free ourselves from the Islamic and ALL other terrors, on a permasanent basis

Raj
Bowlingbrook, United States
Dec 30, 2006 12:00 AM
2
"2006, the year gone by, was one of the best in India's economic history."

No wonder the hatefilled marxist, Beijing Bidwai seems so down. According to this left wing militant, things are going bad.
Raj Shah
New Jersey, USA
Dec 30, 2006 12:00 AM
1
"It is becoming increasingly possible to believe that India's age-old economic problem will be solved in the first quarter of the 21st century" Gurcharan Das

Thanks for the dose of optimism, a miracle drug.
The widespread literacy and technical education, along with growing employment opportunities among women and the historically disadvantaged, should go a long way in tearing down the caste walls which neither the Buddha nor a Gandhi succeeded in getting rid of, despite the best of intentions and efforts.

Now the dose of reality: All this could and should have happened decades ago, with perhaps a quarter less population. This happened DESPITE India's thick bureaucratic quicksand and the entrenched corruption.

1. The MMS government, in addition to talking of further reforms should study in-depth and implement a Sachar-led commission reports, on:

1. Curbing the size and complexity of the bureaucracy,
2. Stringent population control measures among ALL ethnic groups on a MISSION-CRITICAL basis, both for rapid growth and, even most importantly, for preserving the Indic heritage in its land of birth



Raj
Bowlingbrook, United States
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