Contingencies of national politics have conspired to force the DMK, a Dravidian party, to take a position that contradicts and completely undermines its long-held and much-cherished pro-Eelam stance. With M. Karunanidhi’s party in power in Tamil Nadu, one would have expected a huge influx of Lankan Tamil refugees from Jaffna. But the DMK-now that it is part of the NDA-led Union government-is no longer as sympathetic to their Tamil brethren in Jaffna as they once used to be. Every effort is being made to prevent the Lankan refugees from landing in Tamil Nadu.

The DMK is a divided house. It’s confused on how it should react to the war that is raging in northern Lanka. The DMK’s current paradoxical position stems from the yawning discrepancy between its Dravidian ideology and its compulsions of being part of a coalition government (at the Centre), not at all supportive of the Tigers.

Sources in Colombo point out that more than 4,000 people are waiting at Mannar on the northern coast of Sri Lanka to cross into India’s territorial waters. But there are far too few boats to ferry them across. Even those who attempt the journey across the Palk Straits are dissuaded by Indian navy’s patrol boats. In the inability of the thousands of people to make the passage lies the new political game being played by New Delhi, Colombo, Chennai and Jaffna.

The influx of Lankan Tamil refugees shows a sharp spurt whenever the battle hots up in Jaffna. But this time around the influx is surprisingly way below normal. Till now, only 114 people have managed to cross the Straits, with the coast guard and navy having strengthened their vigil.

It is more than evident that the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE share the same perception when it comes to refugee movement-any exodus is welcome as it would force India to change its present hands-off approach. It’s also clear that the governments in New Delhi and Chennai want no influx, as it would force them to act in a proactive fashion. "The inflow of refugees has the potential of stoking Tamil passions. If the television begins telecasting the tales of the refugees, it would once again help create sympathy for the Sri Lankan Tamil cause," says a senior government official. "The revulsion caused by Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination might give way to a sympathy wave for the Lankan Tamils."

When the Outlook team visited Rameshwaram, the coordinated efforts of the Indian navy, coast guard and the state administration to halt the influx was clear. The Indian fishermen have been sternly warned not to ferry people across the border. Says N. Devadas, president, Rameshwaram Mechanised Boat Owners’ Association: "The government has told us that our boats will be confiscated and cases will be registered against anyone who is involved in trafficking of people. The navy once even fired at a boat which was ferrying people." With the Indian fishermen stepping back out of fear, the only way left for the refugees to cross is to depend on the boat services operated from the Sri Lankan side. But due to the intense patrolling they are not able to cross the international border with ease.

According to Commander Francis, officer-in-charge, naval detachment, Rameshwaram, the task of the Indian navy is to protect the borders from refugees. Avers he: "In March we started our intense patrolling at Arichamunai area, the place where refugees used to land. As we found that firing in the air failed to keep the fishermen away from ferrying people, we decided to fire at the violators. This has acted as a major deterrent." The inflow generally picks up around March and peaks in May. The monsoon and high tides make it difficult for boats to ply between Talaimannar in Lanka and India’s Pamban islands, October to February.

The Indian navy’s proactive role has been a blow for those attempting to flee war-torn Jaffna. Such is the desperation of those trapped across the border that the danger notwithstanding, a few Lankan boats still ferry people. But they dare not land the refugees at the regular alighting points. On May 3, 26 refugees were dropped off late at night on a sandbar. They were told that they had reached the Indian coast and could walk to the Dhanuskodi police station in the morning and register themselves.

IT was only the following day that those refugees realised they had been tricked. Trapped with no water or food, these people were desperately seeking help. A three-and-a-half month old child died of dehydration. Some local fishermen did notice them, but didn’t immediately help.

Every effort is being made by the Tamil Nadu government to ensure that the refugees don’t talk to the media. Says a refugee: "Now we fear the camera more than the gun. We’ve been warned in no uncertain terms that if we appear on the TV screen or in print, we will be deported."

Informal conversations with the refugees reveal the key reasons for the low influx this time. Avers a Sri Lankan Tamil who has managed to make it safely to India: "It is virtually impossible to move out of Jaffna. It takes three months for someone from the east-Mullaitivu, for example-to reach Mannar. Vavuniya is cordoned off."

So, given the state of affairs, the only people who have managed to flee from the island are those who could mobilise the required 10,000 Sri Lankan rupees. The point of entry to India and the point of exit in Sri Lanka were many during the 1983-91 phase, but that’s no longer the case.

According to political observers, New Delhi and Chennai are perhaps overlooking the fact that the present mood of indifference in Tamil Nadu might turn into a big wave of celebration once the Tigers manage to wrest Jaffna. "They fought their war; they are winning it; and who are we to say that they shouldn’t win," is the refrain that is steadily gaining ground in Tamil Nadu. The move to prevent the influx of refugees at this stage, therefore, might be seen as an act of betrayal in certain quarters. According to a senior PMK functionary, there cannot be any humanitarian help to Sri Lanka because that government was never human. "The people in Delhi who are talking about humanitarian help to the Sri Lankan government must realise that every Tamilian is asking where their humanitarianism disappeared when Jaffna was evacuated; when more than 400,000 Tamils fled from their homes to protect themselves against the invading Sri Lankan army in 1995-96. Aren’t Tamils human?" he fumes.

The DMK government in Tamil Nadu is trapped between the growing sympathy for the Tamils across the border and its compulsions. As a senior NDA leader said, "The DMK is now seen by Tamil groups as a pro-Delhi party which has reneged on its commitment to Eelam. The PMK and the MDMK have already raised their voices against the Indian position on the ethnic struggle." Whatever the outcome of the battle, the DMK is facing a credibility crisis and in certain quarters the question is already being raised: does it qualify as a Dravidian party any longer.